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November 30 Laughing but actually cryingI try to use humor to talk about a lot of issues that are important to me. I've been at this blog for almost a year now and am now in the process of writing my first book. In the time that I've been writing here, I've seen a lot of things happen in the news that aren't that funny but at the same time are funny in the sense that they're almost comical. I became very invested in one particular candidate, Mike Huckabee, who I agree with on most issues and who I think is the best Republican candidate in decades, only to see him shoved aside in favor of other candidates that I would never vote for. And after he got shoved to the side, I watched in amazement as the leaders in his party, the same folks who shoved him to the side, followed almost step by step all the tips I wrote out in How to lose to Barack Obama. I'm in a little bit of a spot. I actually agree with the Republican Party about more issues than I disagree with them on. I care a lot about the sanctity of human life, which begins at conception and so I generally never vote for Democrats. But as an African American, I have refused to join the Republican Party because I have never felt for the most part that the GOP wants me - up until now, the national party has felt perfectly comfortable with ignoring people like me altogether. And after watching closely the way that the GOP has behaved over the past year - getting rid of its own best candidate because a bunch of media personalities in New York told them to - has made me sort of laugh at the party. I've been laughing at the Democratic Party for years. But now they've become the well-oiled machine and the Republican Party has become the creaky relic. I'm just glad that I am a registered Independent - I feel comfortable enough to laugh at both parties. However, the issues that are important to me - life, small government, racial inclusiveness, concern for those who aren't making much money, the end of a tax on productivity - aren't being addressed by either party. And so while I'm laughing, I'm actually crying at the same time.
Anyway, here's a recap of some of the things I wrote that try to make lemons out of lemonade. And, for your information, I don't watch television as much as the Hollywood influence here might suggest.
November 29 Return of the Jedi Mind Tricks
A couple of months ago, I really started to pay attention to how the Republican Party was really doing almost everything the way that Obama and his team probably wanted them to. They blindly repeated almost every misstep that Senator Clinton had done in her failed quest to topple Obama's candidacy - but did so in an even clumsier manner. I asked myself how could a party that had been so successful in winning elections make so many incredibly foolish moves. I concluded that the persuasive Senator must have used Jedi Mind Tricks to convince the Republicans to do almost exactly what he wanted them to do. I wrote an article about this some time back. It didn't get that many votes on Real Clear Politics, but at least I thought it was funny. And since it's tough to keep coming up with original material, I decided to do a sequel. I call it "The Return of the Jedi Mind Tricks."
After being soundly beaten, the Republicans have escaped to a remote camp so that they can plan their next move. The first issue to be addressed is the leadership posts in the Galactic Congress, the place where the Republican opposition has lost 57 seats in the lower chamber and at least 12 in the upper chamber in the past four years. The young Obama spoke to party members. "You do not want to change leadership. Losing sixty nine seats isn't that bad. At least you didn't lose seventy." The party member stared blankly and agreed. "Uh ... yeah. No changes. You don't change horses in the middle of the quicksand." Then they were set to decide on a new leader for the RNC. Among their choices were one guy who knew how to run an extremely successful campaign with almost no money and another guy who knew how to grow the fledgling rag-tag group of Republicans to include new members. The young Obama spoke to another Republican. "You don't want somebody who isn't already in your little club. You need some old blood." The Republican stared back blankly and repeated the thought. "I don't want any new ideas. Those guys on our side who have been successful in getting lots of new recruits had better out of here!" Later, a few of the Republican Generals were at their hideaway trying to determine why they were nearly annihilated during the past two battles. Obama decided to use his Jedi tricks to confuse his opponents and throw them off the trail. "You didn't lose because some of your officers were convicted of crimes, because you doubled the national debt or because you lost decisively lost every ethnic minority group in the country. You lost because of the media." The Generals responded on cue. "The liberal media did is in. That's the problem. Our plan is that we shall hope that they become less liberal by 2010." And, to seal the doom of his political adversaries, Obama the Jedi spoke to some weakminded soldiers in order to get them to turn against the only one who could used the Red Side of the Force to defeat him. "That guy from Arkansas is not a real conservative. All he does is talk about eliminating the Income Tax, stopping abortion, preserving gun rights and rejecting bail-outs. He's a liberal. You need to warn the others!" The soldiers laughed nervously and repeated what they had been told. "Yeah. He's a liberal. We can't trust him - he hasn't even changed his positions."
Will the Republicans continue to behave as though they were doing the bidding of their opponents? Or will they snap out of their Jedi-induced trance and realize that they are the ones who now need to change - to reach out to all Americans, to stick to principles such as the protection of life and limited government, as well as to stop rejecting those on their own side who do all of this? This saga will unfold over the next four years. But one thing is for sure. If the Republican opposition doesn't change, the young Obama won't even need to draw his saber. If they don't change, his opponents will disintegrate themselves without him needing to lift a finger.
November 27 "The Bailout Bunch"
(Don't miss the next exciting episode. The Bailout Bunch takes a vacation to Las Vegas and the Grand Canyon! Unfortunately there isn't enough room on the expensive jets for either the taxpayers or for their own hard working employees who did everything they could do to keep their businesses going. But the execs have a fantastic time!) November 25 Before you blame the faithful, blame the unfaithful
A lot of people are using the opportunity of this month's catastrophic loss by the Republican Party in every branch of Federal Government and all over the country as evidence that the party's problem - the reason for the declines - is the party's embrace of Evangelical Christians. To these people, the party's embrace of social conservatives is the obvious cause. It is, as Kathleen Parker of the National Review put it, the gorilla in the pulpit. To her, and in the opinion of a number of others who have spoken up lately, a major reason for the GOP disaster is spelled G-O-D. Well, the losses that the GOP have experienced since 2004 have been pretty catastrophic - one could even compare the political disaster to that of a historical disaster, sort of a parallel to that of the Titanic. And when catastrophes happen, whether natural or man-made, some people tend to blame God for it. But before people solidify on that conclusion, we need to do a proper investigation in order to see if there are other factors that might have led to the crash. So, let's dig through the GOP's wreckage and see what else might possibly have led to the accident. We don't have to search that deep in the water - in fact, we can come to a pretty accurate preliminary conclusion if we mainly concentrate on the debris that has accumulated since the 2004 election. I have a sneaking suspicion that when we complete our investigation, we might be able to officially let God off the hook.
Blame Factor 1: Incompetence
One reason the public may have soured on the GOP that had nothing to do with its emphasis on G-O-D might have been because they lost confidence in the way some worldly matters were being handled. For example, just ten months after the Republicans won the Presidency, the Senate, the House and the majority of Governorships, Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast. And although the response was bungled at every level of government, it was the response of the Federal Government, the government of last resort, that everybody across the country remembered the most. The flood and the aftermath of the flood led to the confirmed loss of 1,836 lives - more than half the number of people who died in the 9/11 attacks. On top of that, 705 are still missing. Do you really think the President ever truly lived down the negative publicity brought on by "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" or by the image of him viewing the devastation from aboard Air Force One? If so, I'll pray for you. And of course, there is the matter of the ongoing Iraq War, which, until the surge in 2007, had been widely perceived as going very badly. As well as the doubling of the National Debt - most of it occurring even before the Wall Street bail-out - symbolized by the debt clock in New York City making headlines as it ran out of digits because the debt grew too large. And of course, the bail out itself, which cost a fortune but didn't work. But enough examples. Clearly you can see by now that if the GOP didn't embrace Evangelicals, none of this would have ever happened, right?
Blame Factor 2: Self-serving leaders
Some other contributory causes of the shipwreck art also not in Heaven but on the earth. And in some cases under the earth. Since the 2004 election, the GOP has seen its House Majority Leader criminally indicted and forced to resign from office. One of its Congressional Appropriations Committee members pled guilty to charges of conspiracy to bribe, mail fraud, commit tax evasion and also served prison time. Another of its Congressmen pled guilty to conspiracy and making false statements and served seventeen months in prison. Then the news broke that a Republican Congressman, who was on the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, had been sending lewd text messages to underage Congressional Pages - and that the party leadership had known about it to some degree but declined to act. After this came the news that a Republican U.S. Senator had at one point been a client of a prostitution service. And then an infamous airport sex sting that netted yet another Republican U.S. Senator. The public doesn't seem to mind followers who serve God. On the other hand, they're completely fed up with leaders who serve only themselves. But of course, we all know that the blame for all of this can be laid squarely at the feet of the Evangelicals. Disagree?
Blame Factor 3: Exclusivity
Of course, no investigation of the GOP disaster could be complete without a discussion about the party's failure to be competitive with any ethnic minority groups, with young voters, or with moderate income voters. In fact, the Republican National Convention looked quite a bit like the Titanic ballroom. You just knew that there had to be a wider mix of people out there somewhere who might have enjoyed the fine food and fine folks. But it turns out that they never were even invited to the feast. After making some inroads with all of these demographic groups in 2004, the GOP spent much of the past four years steering the ship way south in this area. Well publicized antagonism or neglect by a few in the party toward minorities inflamed a groundswell of support for the Democratic Party - even in the days in which Senator Clinton was presumed to be the inevitable candidate. And instead of being faithful to the GOP's legacy as the Party of Lincoln, the party leaders seemed to embrace a strategy that did not reach out to a broad enough slice of America. Which further increased the likelihood of a disaster as well as increased the magnitude of it. And if the party would have just gotten rid of those pesky Evangelicals - who tend to be the most inclusive segment of the Republican Electorate - the band in the ballroom wouldn't have had to move up to the deck to start playing in the night air. Right?
Blame Factor 4: "It's unsinkable"
Thanks to SouthernDoc for pointing this one out! I guess one down side of winning seven out of the past ten elections is that one tends to get an air of invincibility. Not just that you probably won't lose but that you almost can't lose. It's not enough for some people to be entrusted with the future of a political party that was founded on great ideas. For some people, it's about being King Of The World!! And some members of the crew flirted dangerously with disaster for years, not believing that the machine that they controlled would ever fail to beat the increasing tides against it. So much so that they imposed even more on those faithful workers in the engine room ("men ... we're thinking about disregarding all the issues that are important to you. Okay, enough talk ... now back to work ... faster!!"). So much that they regularly taunted those in the other nearby ships, building up ill will without realizing that they would need to one day depend on their mercy for rescue. Because they didn't really believe they would ever face a disaster this grave, they took risks that were foolish and concerned themselves more with showing off their prowess than in trying to reach the destination that they originally set out for. And yes, if you haven't figured it out yet, those Evangelicals must somehow be behind all of this.
Blame Factor 5: They ignored the iceberg warnings
When coasting in the unfamiliar waters of a historic election against a sympathetic and charismatic opponent, with the tide roaring strongly against her, the officers of the good ship GOP did what came naturally to them. They stared into the low visibility of the nighttime sky. And then they fired up all the engines and headed into it full blast. Charge!!!! Further investigation of the GOP shipwreck shows evidence that the party spent an extraordinary amount of time charging full steam ahead at their opponent - a tactic that worked in 2004 against a less capable adversary but clearly didn't work out so well this time at all. Throughout the entire General Election campaign, nearly half - 47% to be exact - of McCain's ads were negative (35% of Obama's ads were negative). And during the week of September 28th to October 4th, 100% - all - of McCain's advertising budget went to negative ads. All of it. The public was inundated with various facts about then-Senator Obama's past, even as Congress hotly debated the bailout bill and many people saw their life savings evaporate. The result? Obama's unfavorable rating fell from 36.8% on the 28th to 35.8% on October 4th. McCain's unfavorable rating rose during that period from 38.4% to 40.2%. The more McCain tried to convince people why not to vote for Obama, the more people saw reasons to not vote for McCain. The crew was advised by a few wise people not try to win the election by trying to demonize Senator Obama. In retrospect, it sure seems like they were carrying binoculars, as they somehow saw danger ahead while the Captain and his near-sighted crew thought that the coast was clear. Before long, the danger was way too close and the ship had already been moving way too aggressively to change course. Looking in hindsight, it also seems clear that kicking off the Evangelicals clearly would have prevented even this part of the catastrophe - right. Well, except for the fact that the guy who was perceptive enough to warn them about the iceberg would have gotten kicked off as well. Hmmm. On second thought, maybe N-O-T.
Conclusion: Blame the Crew And so from this short investigation, one that didn't even get into the more deeply buried debris, we can see that this accident was not the fault of the Evangelicals. The faithful, those workers in the engine room who have powered every vessel that has successfully reached its destination over the past two decades, are not to blame. They didn't make incompetent decisions. Or betray the public trust. Or refuse to welcome new people aboard the ship. Or place the ship on a disaster course. All of these things were done by the captain and crew - the same captain and crew who not long ago were drawing praise from some of the same people who are now blaming G-O-D for the disastrous outcome. None of these problems - some of the main reasons for the GOP disaster - were caused by the party's welcoming of Evangelicals. And if people really plan on making the faithful feel less welcome on future voyages, they have to ask themselves, who's going to work the engine room? Who's going to be fired up to move the soon-to-be rebuilt ship into service? Who's going to get excited about climbing on a remodeled ship that is such a stripped-down version of its original design that it amounts to being essentially just a cheap replica of the Democratic boat? Especially when they can go across the bay and hop on the real Democratic vessel? They can go ahead and try to kick the faithful out of the engine room and off the ship. And then change the course of the ship so that it goes nowhere near their territory. All of this could potentially make the next voyage safer. But that's only because that boat is never going to have the momentum to even leave the dock. November 19 StoriesDon't mind my brief self-indulgence here. I really like trying to tell stories and make analogies in order to try to make a point. I've done that a lot over the last few months on various issues. I'm going to do a brief recap on some of them. I think of them as Veggie Tales for grown-ups. Here they are:
And in case you've never noticed the categories wayyyy at the bottom of the page, here are a couple of the things that I have a lot to say about.
So, pardon the indulgence here, but I felt like pointing out a couple of these. Hope you enjoy them if you haven't read them before. November 15 The Grand Old PredicamentYet one more reason why the GOP needs to reach out to blacks, Hispanics, and young people ... look at the demographics of the states which increased congressional seats due to reapportionment. All have either elevated percentages of blacks or Hispanics as well as many young people in them. If they don't do this or don't see the need to do this, stick a toast in it because they're done for quite a while. November 13 Playing a 2008 Game using a 1968 Game Plan
Take a look at the exit polls from 2008 and compare them with the polls from 2004:
I'll write more about this later, but, if the bottom picture doesn't say anything to you, I'm not sure what else will. These are the seven states that haven't voted Democrat since at least 1996 (before last Tuesday), all of which Obama won. Look at the Demographics of these states. If McCain had won these states, all of which Bush won in 2004, he would have won the election. In almost all of them, there are above average numbers of blacks, Hispanics, and young people - three groups of people that the GOP has pretty much ignored (especially blacks, whom the party has written off). So, to our Republican Governor friends who are meeting today in order to figure out what hit them, this is one of the things that hit you. The Southern Strategy has come back to bite the GOP where it hurts. It's time that we not only unify as Americans but have our major political parties interested in reaching out to all Americans. November 10 Why Mike Huckabee should be America's 45th PresidentHere is a guy who can bring together people of all races, all parties, and all ideologies. Somebody who has definite convictions but isn't angry about it and shows respect to everybody. A fundamentally decent man who should be the next President of the United States.
November 09 Mike Huckabee on race
This is just one of many reasons why I will do anything - give money, knock on doors, make flyers, make bumper stickers, work phone banks, write books - to get this guy elected as the 45th President of the United States. November 06 Flipping and floppingFlipping
President-Elect Barack Obama won the 2008 Presidential Election in part by winning a total of nine states that President Bush won in 2004. Of those nine states that "flipped," seven of them had not gone Democratic since at least 1996. Two of those states, Virginia and Indiana, have not voted for the Democrat in a Presidential contest since 1964, when President Johnson won in a landslide over Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. A third state, North Carolina, had not voted for a Democrat since the 1976 election. All totaled, these nine states gave Barack Obama 112 Electoral Votes. The seven states that hadn't gone blue in at least the previous two elections gave him 100 Electoral Votes. If McCain had held onto these seven states, he would have narrowly won the election.
Obama won the seven states, the ones that his party hadn't won since at least 1996, by a relatively narrow margin. The median margin of victory for Obama in these states was 137,375 votes out of a median of 2,737,615 cast - a 4.5% margin. The above map shows these states along with the 2007 census statistics that show the percentages of minority and youth voters who live in those states.
Flopping It is likely that Obama overcame McCain in these former red states for a wide variety of reasons, including the economic downturn as well as the various issues that have negatively impacted the popularity of Republican candidates nationwide. But it is interesting to note that six of these seven states that hadn't voted Democratic since at least 1996, as well as seven of the nine states that switched from red to blue since 2004, are states that have some combination of the following: an above-average population of Hispanic voters, an above-average population of black voters, or an above-average percentage of households in the state that earn below $50K per year. It's hard to not theorize that the Republican Party is, among the many things that it is being hurt by, being hurt by its relative underperformance among young voters, minority voters and moderate-income voters. Look at the chart below, which maps out the trends of these groups of voters over the past four elections. Also notice that none of the groups ever made it over the 50% mark in any of the past four elections.
Here are the detailed tables for the data shown in the chart.
The Republican Party has to repair a number of things about its image. It needs to find out why it is doing so poorly among all minority voters as well as young voters and take actions to close these gaps. This does not need to involve changing the Party Platform in my opinion, but rather, treating these groups like any other constituency that a political party hopes to make inroads with. That includes actually trying to connect with these voters, spending time finding out about the concerns of these voters and investing time in building relationships. The things that both parties do with every other group of people it wants to win votes from. It would be extremely prudent for the Republican Party to find a way to approach the level of diversity that is present in the Democratic Party. The same type of diversity that is present in those seven states that would have given John McCain the Presidency had he not narrowly lost them. Pride
I have been very open about my differences with President-Elect Obama. And now I'm going to be open in expressing that while I still have those differences, I'm very proud of him, his accomplishment and proud of this country. Whether you are a supporter or an opponent of his, you simply have to admit that he ran a brilliant and disciplined campaign. The Obama 2008 campaign will be studied by political science students from now on as probably the most successful campaign ever executed. Not just because he, a political newcomer, managed to win. But because he and his people were smart enough to put together a simple and concise message that was so simple that everybody could remember it and adopt it. Because they managed to raise more money than had ever been raised by mostly depending on a whole lot of "regular folks." Because they were extraordinarily disciplined and left no charge unanswered. Brilliant is the only way I can describe the campaign. I am still processing the fact that America has a black President. My great-great grandfather was a slave - considered the legal property of a family in the south from which I got my last name. My grandfather was a sharecropper. My dad grew up in a segregated school system and had to walk past the nicer school for white kids so that he could go to the little shack of a school that was built for the black kids. And because of the sacrifices of many people, both black and white, the generation that President-Elect Obama and I both grew up in grew up together with friends of all races. And many people of all races demonstrated that America is willing to vote for someone without regard to their race. I have trouble comprehending exactly how far we've come. I am proud of this moment in history. I am proud of Barack Obama. I am proud of America. I will continue to oppose a number of Obama's policies and will not hold back in the least in standing for the things that I believe in. I am still hoping that my favorite candidate, Mike Huckabee, will run in 2012, as he most closely shares my values and is my favorite political leader; I am looking forward to supporting him when he runs again. But for now, Obama is the President-Elect of the United States and will my President as well. And I will pray that he does a great job in leading this country for the next four years. And one day, it will finally completely dawn on me how much we've just broken an incredible barrier. November 05 Obama should thank the other folks who helped him
November 04 Praying for the President
Mr. President,
I am writing to offer you my prayers and also my congratulations. I did not vote for you and I disagree with you on a number of issues. But, despite that, I am praying for you. Praying that you will be successful in the enormous tasks that are before you. As an African American, I never thought that the day would come when America would have a black President. I am very proud to see that day come. I strongly preferred that the next President would be someone who shared my positions on the issues that are most important to me, regardless of that person's skin color. But the election is over now and it's time for this country to support and pray for you. I pray for you and your family and hope that you will be successful and make the right decisions. All of us depend on that. I will specifically be praying every day that God will help you to change your mind on the issue of the abortion of unborn babies. I've pointed out before how your position contradicts your own life story. I will continue to advocate for this and other issues that are important to me. I will respect your office and respect you personally but will continue to openly and adamantly disagree with you - while at the same time constantly praying that you change your mind. I congratulate you on running a strategically and tactically brilliant campaign and finding a theme that resonated with the American people. I also offer my condolences for the loss of your grandmother. But most importantly, as I prayed for your predecessors, I am praying for you and praying that you will do the right thing. |
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