The Values Voter's Blog

"Sure, he’s a wonderful person ... He’d make a great vice president." - Mitt Romney, December, 2007

1. His Experience and Record: He has ten and a half years experience running a government as the Chief Executive. This is a longer tenure of governmental Chief Executive experience than any other 2008 Presidential candidate and is longer than the tenure of any current governor of either party. In 2005, he was named by Time Magazine as one of America's five best Governors. As Governor, Huckabee managed to deal with many of the major issues that Americans are asking the next Administration to handle. He was the first Governor in his state's history to institute a broad-based tax cut and was criticized for refusing to raise taxes at a time of budget deficit. He created a program that offered health insurance to poor children. He reduced the percentage of uninsured Arkansans so that it was a fourth less than the national average. He cut welfare rolls in half and even with all of these things, his state's economy grew at a rate faster than the national average.
2. His reputation among his peers: He was trusted by his Governor peers of both parties to serve as the Chairman of the bipartisan National Governor’s Association, one of the nation’s most respected public policy organizations.
3. His Chief Executive experience: Because historically, Presidents who have been Governors have performed better than those who were not, McCain would be wise to pick a long-term Governor like Huckabee. Presidents who never held Executive offices but who had running mates who did have performed better than Presidents who never held Executive offices but did not have running mates with Executive Experience either.
4. His Youth: Although he has more experience running a government than any other national politician, he is actually less than six years older than Barack Obama. And in spite of this, his presence on the ticket won't blunt McCain's argument that Obama isn't experienced enough (the "if experience is important, how can you make this person one heartbeat away from the Presidency" response). Despite their closeness in age, Huckabee has four times as much experience as Obama.
5. His Clean Lifestyle: In a time when many politicians of both parties have been ensnared in tawdry personal scandals, Huckabee has a very stable family life, having been married to the same woman for 34 years and being the father of three grown children who are still close to him and who have helped run his campaign.
6. His Leadership Capabilities: In addition to his long experience in Government, Huckabee has a variety of leadership experience outside of politics. He was a successful and popular Pastor and was also elected to be the President of the Arkansas Baptist State Convention. He is also the author of six books and is in the process of completing his seventh. And as the national Republican Party is still suffering image problems in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Huckabee is an example of what people want their leaders to do in a time of crisis. During the disaster, Huckabee's government helped do all that it could do to accommodate the evacuees. It helped make room in hotels and motels for needy families. Huckabee released state funds to assist some of the shelters. He also provided free emergency prescriptions and access to dialysis machines to those who were in medical need.
7. Their Combined Electability: There have been five bellwether states - Ohio, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Arkansas - that have correctly predicted the winner of the General Election for each of the past eight elections (dating back to 1976). Of those, in the GOP Primaries, Huckabee won the popular vote in two of them (Arkansas and Louisiana), coming in second to McCain in the other three. McCain won the popular vote in three of them (Ohio, Missouri and Kentucky), coming in second to Huckabee in the other two. The margin between the two in the state of Missouri was extremely narrow. And in the state of Kentucky, Huckabee even managed to come in second to John McCain three and a half months after he suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain. So, the McCain/Huckabee ticket is the one that performs best in the places that matter the most.
8. His Long-Held Support Among Conservatives: Huckabee's national support among conservatives is not just a recent phenomenon but a constant. In 1998, Huckabee came in second (to John Ashcroft) in a Christian Coalition Presidential Straw Poll. (He actually came in higher than then-Governor George W. Bush). Edward Walsh wrote for the Washington Post (2/17/1998) that “It's settled. The Christian Coalition has surveyed its leadership and decided that Sen. John D. Ashcroft (R-Mo.) should be the next president and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) should be his vice president.”
9. His Support among Influential Politicians: J.C. Watts, who represents both the concerns of Evangelicals and conservative African Americans, has expressed dismay at the Republican Party’s failure to reach out to both groups. But the inclusion of Huckabee on the ticket would do a lot to shore up this support and even lure voters from some traditional Democratic groups to the Republican ticket.
10. Even His Enemies Want Him Around: Remember the Club For Growth and their endless attacks on Mike Huckabee? Isn’t it interesting that some of these same people, who called Huckabee a liberal, were begging him to run for the U.S. Senate – or even to become the head of the RNC – within a week of him ending his Presidential bid. One might ask “why would self-proclaimed fiscal conservatives want a liberal to take over the party?” The answer is that their opposition to him was not substantive in nature. And just as they wanted to promote Huckabee into higher levels of responsibility, they would very likely get behind a McCain/Huckabee ticket, no matter how much they’re kicking and screaming now.
11. His Geographical support: With Barack Obama making progress in the south, Mike Huckabee, as a long-term and popular southern Governor, secures this backbone of Republican support. There was even a story in the news about some Alabama politicians almost fighting over which one of them would get Huckabee’s endorsement.
12. His Media Savvy: Mike Huckabee has many years of experience in communicating with the public over the mass media. His first job was reading the news on the local radio station at age 14. He started two full-time television stations at the churches he pastured and has recently been awarded a contract at Fox News.
13. His ability to win in hostile environments: He achieved cross-party popularity, becoming only the second Republican Governor of Arkansas since Reconstruction and remaining in the job until term limits forced him out. He won two elections for Lieutenant Governor and two as Governor – in the heart of the Clinton political machine and at a time when Clinton was a popular President who supported his opponents.
14. His success in winning many voter segments: In Arkansas, Huckabee won with voters of every age group, all voters making more than $15,000 a year, and won or nearly tied voters of every education level. He also won almost all Republican voters, the majority of Independents and more than a third of Democrats.
15. His unusual (for a Republican) success with black voters: He has the greatest support among African Americans of any national Republican politician in decades. He won 48% of the black vote in Arkansas. He is very highly regarded by black voters nationwide. Since several of the southern states that have large black populations are showing surprising strength by Obama, Huckabee would appeal to these many of these voters who are conservative, disagree with Obama on the issues, but feel rejected by the Republican Party.
16. Many fiscal conservatives actually do like him: In addition to Evangelicals, blacks, blue collar voters and southerners, Huckabee is a favorite of the ultimate fiscal conservatives – supporters of the Fair Tax. These are the people who don’t just complain about the unfairness of the tax code but actually want to do something about it.
17. He brings social conservatives and then some: As some journalists who have bothered to actually talk to Huckabee supporters have discovered, we’re not all Evangelicals. Huckabee won four million votes but did it without even getting the majority of the Evangelical vote, which was split among multiple candidates.
18. His loudest critics realize that he resonated with voters: Even Huckabee’s harshest critics, such as Rich Lowry of the National Review, grudgingly acknowledge that Huckabee would be “just the right Republican for this particular moment, when pocketbook concerns are looming so large.” Even though they continue to slam him and question his economic credentials, they clearly understand that his message has resonated with the public that is so disenchanted with the status quo.
19. His success in dealing with the health care crisis: At a time that the nation is concerned with health care, Huckabee is both an advocate for preventive health through a healthy lifestyle and an example of it – he lost 110 pounds after being diagnosed with diabetes. He wrote a book on losing weight and launched a childhood obesity campaign with the American Heart Association. And he even offers a personal example of lowering health care costs – he stopped needing to take diabetes medication when he lost weight.
20. He knows how to campaign competitively while at a financial disadvantage: Huckabee spent less money per vote than any candidate in the 2008 Campaign and perhaps less money per vote than any candidate in the past three decades. In a time that McCain finds himself severely underfunded in comparison with Barack Obama, Huckabee has experience in capitalizing on free media and stretching campaign dollars to the extent of outperforming better funded rivals. He also never had to take any campaign loans and ended his campaign in the black - after outlasting and outperforming almost all of his better-funded rivals.
21. His online grassroots network: On any ticket that includes Huckabee, his bloggers come with him. Huckabee has a massive web of grassroots activists, including Huck’s Army, a dedicated group of volunteers who like to share with other people why we think this guy is so cool. We aren’t paid. We spend some of our valuable free time advocating issues that are important to us, doing lots of research and in some cases providing the type of good press that no ad agency or political consultant can buy. During the primaries, whenever anyone said anything false about Huckabee, we were on it within minutes. We also ran phone banks, made our own bumper stickers, etc (and yes, thank you, we actually do have lives). And if our guy is on the ticket, we will work just as hard for McCain/Huckabee as we did for Huckabee.
22. His other grassroots networks: It’s not all about Huckabee’s online supporters. There are also truckers for Huckabee, Homeschoolers for Huckabee, conservative blacks for Huckabee. Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. While a good number of these people might vote for a ticket that didn’t include Huckabee, they definitely would vote for one that would include him. And more important than that, they would get out and fight and work hard for it. In a close election, there is a big difference between having a good number of lukewarm supporters and a greater number of fired-up supporters.
23. He knows how to campaign with class: Huckabee’s urging of his party to approach their differences with Senator Obama with civility and focus on the issues instead of personal attacks has earned him praise from a wide variety of groups whose support will be important in the General Election.
24. He is liked even by people who totally disagree with him on issues: Although Huckabee has unshakable socially conservative credentials, a lock on the south, and support from many who oppose the Federal Tax Code, he is also personally liked by many who disagree with him on almost every issue. On the liberal blog the Huffington Post, Drew Westin wrote “from the first time I watched Huckabee, he made me nervous, because I disliked most of what he said but I liked him anyway” and called him “the most politically intelligent of the candidates on the Republican side in 2008” and praised his “sense of humor” and “genuineness.” Many Democrats have spoken kindly of Huckabee especially as he urged his party to campaign against Obama on the issues instead of through personal attacks and as he defended Hillary Clinton against pressure to drop out.
25. He has shown class and respect to McCain - even when they were rivals: He hasn’t made statements against McCain that could be used against McCain by the Obama camp during the General Election.

and ...

There actually is one more very important reason for including Huckabee on the ticket, beyond the factually verifiable reasons listed above. Chuck Norris wants him on the ticket. Stop smiling - he means it.  (You didn't just read this last reason. Chuck Norris just read it to you.)

Obama considers himself to be a spiritual person and though I don't at all understand how he can have some of his positions, I don't make it a point to question anyone else's faith. In fact, if I were Obama, I can imagine what I'd be praying right now. I'd be praying for my opposition to listen to the suggestions of the pundits who have been influencing the Republican process up to this point in time. Here's a snippet of what I can imagine Obama is praying:

Grant me this year the serenity to have my message of "change" accepted. Grant not my opponents the courage to change from bad tactics to good ones - or the wisdom to know the difference.

I pray that many of those who oppose me will waste the next four months making fun of my middle name and taking personal shots at my wife. This way I shall be spared from having to give answers for my positions on late-term abortion, domestic oil drilling, and tax increases. In this I take comfort.

May my opponents become so blinded in their dislike of me that they do nothing but verbally attack me - from the rising of the sun to the going down of the same. Let them play rhyming games with my last name. Talk about my former church. Spread unproven rumors. Voice various insults. May they become so focused on attacking me the person that they both lose favor with the public and also forget to challenge me on the issues. Lest the manifold problems with some of my positions be laid bare before all.

I pray that the other side will forsake their first love - the Evangelicals. May they forget them who helped their party to win five of the last seven elections. May they assume that these voters will vote for them no matter what. And if they should ignore this great multitude, may enough of them stay home that I might prevail. Or even, if possible, I pray, may my refusal to ignore these same voters convince some of them to vote for me instead.

May the desires of the other side to win new territory grow so strong that they should forget to protect their own. May their dreams of turning Michigan red be so great that they forget about keeping Georgia and Mississippi from going blue.

I also request that they assume that all black voters will vote for me. May they act on this false belief so that they refuse to even ask for their votes. And may this not only become a self-fulfilling prophecy, but may the perception it causes also alienate many white voters as well.

May they give heed to the advice of the conservative media establishment, whose abode is in states that I shall win handily. May they follow all of their advice in how they choose to engage me, how they choose to campaign and how they choose to complete the other ticket.

And I give many thanks for those in the other side's establishment and media. Their actions have filled my heart with gladness. They have spared me from facing an opponent who could easily beat me in a debate, who is less than six years older than me but has four times the experience, and who is every bit as charismatic as me but carries less baggage. Yes, they sheltered me from someone who could have given me a serious run for my money in every demographic category. They treated him with spite and even now hurl insults at him. I pray that they are successful in keeping him off the ticket as he makes the other side look pleasing to the eyes of the voters who will decide this election. (Amen!)

May they become so eager to please their media pundits that they pair my honorable opponent with someone with no more experience in government than I. Or someone unknown. Or someone who shall not win in the south. Or a "safe" pick - someone who is beloved by their media and establishment. I pray that my opponent shall pick a partner who will be highly favored by the National Review, the Washington establishment and others who spend less time with their voters than even I do.

And, lastly, I pray that the voters - all voters - trust not in their own research but in what the media suggests. Let them trust what the liberal media says about me and what the conservative media says about how to defeat me. If this happens, I will be blessed in the city and blessed in the country.

Amen!

It has to be at least a little funny that so many among the conservative elite who instruct conservative voters in the knowledge of who is and isn't acceptable to conservatives live and work in places that never vote for Republicans. Main Street ... pay attention. Wall Street is giving you instructions. They're trying to protect you from those elitists on the left.

I've finally figured out how the official spokespeople for all things conservative have so much information about the liberals that they like to deride. They have a lot of insightful information to share with us about the liberal media, "limousine liberals" and the liberal elite. But it turns out that they got this inside information on the inner workings of Blue State America in a way that's a lot less insidious than many people would imagine. They don't do any wiretaps. They don't steal files. They don't use spies or other devious infiltration techniques to spy on the liberals.

They just go to their windows. And look across the street. You see, the conservative media - the ones who tell those of us in the red states who is conservative and who is not - live across the street from the liberals. That is when they don't live next door. They probably ride in the same limos.

I can't get over how out of touch some conservative media outlets are with conservative voters. Especially the National Review, which has gone out of its way to bash Huckabee with every opportunity (by the way, did we mention that he's totally unacceptable?) and to plug people like Romney (did you know he's a true conservative? Trust us, conservatives would be thrilled!) All I will waste any effort saying at this point is that if John McCain listens to people like this, the Republicans will lose badly in places that they haven't lost in twenty years. Like the south. Game over.

And if that happens, Mr. Lowry and company will have no one but themselves to thank for the nice new 55% Federal Income Tax Rates they'll be paying.

When I was growing up, my dad drove a taxi cab in the District of Columbia as a second job in order to make more money to support our family. It was a dangerous job. In fact, one night, a passenger hopped into his cab and pointed a gun into his back. He instructed my dad to drive to a remote area. My father is a brave man and decided that if he was going to get shot, he was going to get shot in the open. And so he drove to the front of a police precinct, pulled up to an officer, and told him that he was being robbed. The man was arrested.

Isn't my family lucky that the D.C. gun laws were in place to protect my dad?

I am not a gun lover. I don't even like guns. But I defend the Constitutional Right of individual citizens to own guns. And though I understand and agree with some of the points made by both sides in the gun debate, my mind keeps hopping back to one key question.

The question is, for the average person who is depraved enough to use a gun to commit a violent crime against another human being, does that person care that they're committing one more felony by having the gun? Does the fact that the gun is illegal in any way make them less likely to get one? Has anyone ever said "I would shoot that person if only it were legal for me to get a gun?"

Unlike issues like abortion, taxes, etc., I will admit that I have not studied the data on gun laws. I really don't know the empirical evidence of how effective they are. But living near the D.C. area both now and in my growing up years, all during which handguns were illegal, I will tell you that I don't understand how this attempt to prohibit handgun ownership helped at all. Not only did the law violate the Constitution but it also seemed to be very ineffective. As the crack cocaine epidemic, combined with the decay of the family, waged war on the city during the 1980's, the crime rate went way out of control. The law seemed to do nothing to resolve the underlying problems for the crime. Certainly, anyone who wanted a gun could get a gun whether they were legal or not. Except of course for people who choose to obey the law.

If at 3 AM, someone tries to break into my home and harm my family, I won't be calling any politician. The government won't have time to help me before the criminal gets to me. And so I want the right to use a firearm to protect my family. And I wouldn't deny that right to any other law-abiding citizen no matter where they live.

Another horrible story of idiotic behavior is in the news today. An American Eagle flight crew kicked a woman and her scared toddler off a a flight. The details from ABC 11:

An American Eagle flight taxiing to a Raleigh-Durham Airport runway was turned around Monday, but not because of a terrorist threat.

The crew was kicking an autistic Cary toddler and his mother off the plane.

The story gets worse the more you read it. According to the story, an indignant flight attendant was yelling at the toddler while tightening his seat belt more and more. The co-pilot came back to give the mom who was trying to calm her child down a stern warning. Then they turned the plane around and announced to all the passengers that the reason was because of a woman and her uncontrollable child. Then they apologized to the family, only to recant the apology by having its corporate spokespeople say that they did the right thing.

For those who aren't clued in about Autism, it is a very real disorder. Brain scans of autistic kids and those without the disorder are markedly different, as are, in many cases, scans of the intestinal system. A lot of these kids are anxiety prone. They sometimes physically feel sick - as in nauseated - because of fungal problems in their gut. And they often have problems communicating - either in terms of their receptive language or their expressive language or both. For some of these kids, the way that they communicate best is by the old fashioned way - crying. And even if this hasn't touched your family yet, this is a true epedimic. In 1989, about 1 and 10,000 kids were diagnosed with Autism. Today, about 1 in 150 children are diagnosed on the Autistic spectrum. Someone may suggest that this is simply the result of better detection. To which I respond, "show me the 1 in 150 adults who are autistic." Because if the problem hasn't gotten worse over the years, the ratios of kids with Autism and adults with Autism should be about the same.

Anyway, unless the company issues a prompt apology and announces a plan to train its staff to deal with situations like this, I will never take American Airlines again. Not when I travel with my family. Not when I take a business trip. Goodbye.

If this is how they treat vulnerable passengers who are trying to comply with the rules, they might find soon that they're the ones who are crying - when their ticket sales fall further.

From 1789 through 2004, there have been 55 Presidential Elections In nine of those Elections, the person who won was not able to complete his term. Eight died in office and one was forced to resign. There have also been numerous close calls - Presidents who nearly died in office, were nearly forced to resign or who could have been deemed medically unable to perform their duties. More than any other attribute, the Vice President must be a person who is capable of running the country at a moment's notice if needed.

Many of us who have a vested interest in either party's Veepstakes can probably imagine some key scenes in the next administration in which our favorite choice for Vice President exhibits heavy influence with the boss. We can envision the Cabinet meeting in which all of the President's appointees and aides are sitting around a huge, long table, with our favorite choice for Vice President sitting at the President's right side. The Cabinet Secretaries and aides are looking perplexed. The Senior Aides are wringing their hands. The President has his head held down, not knowing the best course of action to take. And then our Veep heroically leans over to whisper in the President's ear in a calm and confident voice:

"Mr. President. Sir ... I officially recommend that you ... fix the economy!"

The President smiles and nods in agreement - what a great idea! The whole room looks relieved. Our Vice President is always there to save the day when the next Administration might otherwise go astray. We think of his/her main role as being the voice that whispers good advice into the President's ear. But for all the talk about balancing the ticket, satisfying different constituencies and the working relationship between the two top Executives, we tend to forget the most crucial role of a Vice President. The job of being ready to become President at a moment's notice.

Russian Roulette

From the time George Washington was elected in 1789 through the Election of 2004, there have been 55 Presidential Elections. In that same time period, there have been eight Presidents who died in office and one who resigned in office. This means that out of the 55 times that a person has been elected to serve a term as President of the United States, there have been nine times that the winner was unable to finish his elected term. Another way of looking at this is that historically speaking, there is an 83.63% chance that the person who is elected President finishes the term to which they were elected. Pretty good odds.

Except when you look at it this way. The odds of surviving the first round of Russian Roulette are 83.33%. The odds are almost exactly the same.

And in addition to our nine Presidents who either died in office or resigned, we've had many other close calls among the Presidents who have served out their terms. President Clinton was impeached and came relatively close to being removed from office. President Reagan very nearly died when he was shot in 1981. President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack during his first term and a mild stroke during his second term. In 1943, President Roosevelt was onboard a Navy warship on his way to attend a summit when his vessel was nearly sunk - by another Navy vessel that accidentally fired a torpedo at it. President Harding might have been impeached had he not died in office of a heart attack first. President Wilson suffered a massive stroke toward the end of his second term and was completely incapacitated for months. And President Andrew Johnson came within a single vote of being removed from Office - at a time that the nation had no Vice President.

And then there was the amazing situation in the wake of the Election of 1972 in which both the President (Nixon) and his Vice President (Agnew) were forced from office before their terms were complete. Both were out of office just a little more than a year and a half after they swept the country and won 49 out of 50 states.

Let me emphasize this very firmly: no matter who wins the Presidency, I will be praying every single day that the person not only remains healthy and stays out of trouble but that the person does a fantastic job leading our country. Our nation badly needs for whoever wins this November to be successful in the job they do for this country. But history should teach us that one of most important decisions a President makes is the decision of who will run the country in the unlikely but possible event that he or she can't serve the whole term.

Quality #1 - Having The Proven Ability To Run A Government

So, when a running mate is being considered, that person really needs to be subjected to some of the same fundamental questions that the Presidential candidate is subjected to. Can he/she lead the country? Do they have the experience, the judgment and the temperament? After all, this person could become the President at any point in time.

As I've pointed out before, historically speaking, Presidents who had been Governors beforehand are more successful than Presidents who had not been. Comparing the Wall Street Journal's 2005 survey (which asked a bipartisan group of historians to rate the Presidents) with the previous political offices held by Presidents before taking office, our Presidents who were previously Governors had an average rating of 3.201 ("above average") while the other Presidents who hadn't been averaged at 2.87 ("average"). There is clear evidence that running a state government as Chief Executive is often good preparation for running the country.

Of the nine Vice Presidents who became President when their boss either died or resigned, only two - Theodore Roosevelt and Harry Truman - were rated above average by historians (both are considered "near great"). Only two others - Calvin Coolidge and Lyndon Johnson - were considered average. The other five are considered to have been below-average or outright failures.

These four Vice Presidents who ascended to the Presidency and who are thought of well by Presidential Historians were all people who were used to having roles in which they either were the person in charge or had unique leadership roles. Roosevelt and Coolidge had both been successful and popular state governors. Truman and Johnson were both prominent Senators; Truman was a powerful Committee Chairman and Johnson was the Senate Majority Leader who had long been a leader among his peers.

A common attribute among the most successful Vice Presidents is that they had been successful in holding positions that required them to be the leader (and not just one of many) at lower levels of government before they got the Veep job.

Quality #2 - Having Integrity

Of course, it does no good to choose somebody who is capable of assuming the top job if needed if they have character flaws that could prevent them from keeping it.

President Bill Clinton came to the White House with more years of experience running a government than any President in U.S. History. He actually lowered the Federal Budget deficit every single year of his Presidency until there was no deficit. And then he increased the surplus every year after that. But because of poor choices he made in his personal integrity, he came within seventeen Senate votes of being removed from office.

In October 1973, the month of the Arab Oil Embargo and the Yom Kippur War, the United States could have ended in a position in which the Speaker of the House would have had to become President in an emergency succession crisis. Earlier that month, Vice President Spiro Agnew, who was chosen as a running mate for Nixon for reasons that did seem to take character into account, was forced to resign. He pled no contest to charges of tax evasion and money laundering. President Nixon himself was to resign almost exactly ten months later. Had Nixon's tapes been discovered a few months earlier, Nixon might have been forced to resign, making Agnew President. And then Agnew would have had to resign. It would have created an unprecedented leadership crisis for this country at a moment when we could have least afforded to be without a leader.

And so, among the many criteria that should be used to select a running mate, personal character really needs to be one of them.

Other Factors

As much as people talk about the importance of foreign policy credentials during this time that our nation is at war, I am reminded of the fact that this nation won World War I and came within a month of winning World War II while two men who had never served one day in uniform (Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt respectively) were Commander-In-Chief. Foreign Policy experience is incredibly important. But a better historical predictor of Presidential success is in having a track record of running a government as Chief Executive.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has more experience running a government than any of the 2008 Presidential Candidates of either party. In addition, his ten and a half year tenure is longer than that of any current Republican Governor. Many voters of both parties have become endeared to Huckabee because of his personal integrity and fairness, as evidenced by his calls for his party to debate the issues and not embark on destructive personal politics. If McCain chooses Huckabee he will provide himself the best partner and America the benefit of having a capable successor who would be capable of assuming the high office in the unlikely event that he is required to.

Backup

The odds are overwhelming that whoever wins the next election will complete his term, remaining both healthy and out of trouble. But in the event that for some reason this doesn't happen, it is in the best interest of America for the Presidential Candidates to choose as a running mate someone who has the demonstrated capability of running a government at some level. The Vice Presidency is similar to a spare tire on a car. It's something that has very little purpose while the main tire is functioning. Some see its purpose as little more than decorative, as they are on some SUVs. However, in the event that the tire does need to be replaced, the presence of a working spare tire that can withstand the pressures of the road is invaluable. And when you know that the tires have a 17% chance of needing to be replaced, it is foolish to not make sure that the spare has been tested and won't need to be immediately replaced itself.

Back in the eighties, there was a great movie about a kid who traveled back in history in a time machine made out of a De Lorean. He was able to go back and meet his parents in their younger years and straighten out a number of issues that would have affected his family in a negative way had he not gone back and intervened. Good flick. I'm sure you've seen it.

With all the talk about rolling back the Bush Tax Cuts - the ones that basically every Democrat says helped mainly "the rich," I started to do a little thinking. How would the future life of the average American family be affected if they were suddenly, with today's costs and obligations, thrust back eight years and made to live under the tax rates of 2000 - the rates that were in place before Bush cut them?

As the oddball scientist who likes to do some tinkering in my spare time, I imagined what it would be like to have a time machine that could transport a typical American family - we'll call them the Smiths - back eight years to experience what life would be like for some non-rich people who need to pay today's expenses without the Bush tax cuts. Let's pretend that they're loaded into the time machine with the destination set on 2000. They take with them their 2008 salary and their 2008 bills but need to pay their Federal Taxes with the 2000 tax code - the last tax code before Bush cut them "for the rich." This way, we can get an understanding of how the Bush Tax Cuts affected regular, non-rich people. And hey, maybe by going back in time to learn the truth about the tax cuts, we can get some information that can help our family avoid hard times in the future. Let's rev up the engine.

(Eh. I don't think they make De Loreans anymore. I wanted to build the imaginary time machine with a Lambourghini. But the gas is pretty expensive these days. Mind if we use a Prius?)

Before the Smiths go back to the tax rates of 2000, let's talk about their life today. The census bureau says that in 2005, the average income for a four person family was $67,019. In today's world, assuming that they take have two kids, take the standard deduction, and pay an average state tax rate of 5.71% (using the Wikipedia numbers), they pay $5,626 a year in Federal Taxes, $4,155 in Social Security taxes, $972 in Medicare taxes, and $3,827 in state taxes. After taxes, they've got $52,439 left over every year. And using the 2005 figures from the Census bureau on the average household expenditures, the Smiths spend $32,444 of that in essential living expenses. Of course, these average figures assumed annual gasoline expenses of only $1,610 and annual utility bills of $2,697 (hmmm ... I think they might be a little higher now). But with the 2008 tax rates, our family has some leftover money to pay some of the difference in inflated gas and utility bills, to save some cash for their kids' education and for retirement, and to buy clothes, go on vacation and grab the occasional pizza.

But, once they ride back to 2000 and find themselves facing the tax rates of that era, they find that making the same money, they would pay $10,161 in Federal Taxes. That's a $4,535.00  dollar increase. Even though they're not rich, they clearly were reaping a pretty nice benefit from the Bush Tax Cuts - the taxes that were waiting for them in 2000 were 81% higher than the ones they left in 2008. In this strange world, they now only have $47,904 left over after taxes - instead of today's $52,439. They still have at least $32,444 in essential living expenses, plus a need for a considerably higher amount of gas and utilities. But now they have less cushion than they had in 2008 to pay for these increased costs. It very well may be that something else has to give - maybe the savings for education or retirement. Maybe the clothes. Maybe the vacation or other entertainment.

Hey - wait a minute, buddy. I've always heard that the Bush Tax Cuts were just for the rich!

My response: (knock knock knock). C'mon. Think, McFly!

Although many politicians verbally slam the Bush Tax Cuts, the facts are that these cuts were not just "for the rich." They benefited taxpayers of different income levels. And if they were repealed, the increase in tax rates would affect taxpayers of different income levels.

If the Bush tax cuts are reversed, it will hurt families who are not rich and who will have one more big fat bill that they can't choose to not pay - the Federal Tax Bill that would in some cases be nearly twice what it is today. They might have to choose to not pay other bills instead, which will in turn hurt all the businesses that depend on disposable income (places which often employ other non-rich people who depend on the business to survive so that they can have jobs). I am not an economist and cannot speak to what exactly will happen on Wall Street if taxes are raised. But the prospect of a tax increase - through the rollback of tax cuts - will hurt the economy here on Main Street.

In case you're wondering, you don't need to worry about how much the family would be able to tuck into the savings account each year if taxes are raised. Savings accounts? Where we're going, we don't need ... savings accounts.

In 1968, President Richard Nixon picked his running mate during his party's convention. He chose the former Governor of Maryland Spiro Agnew. Nixon chose him over objections that he wasn't that well known and that he was chosen over at least seventeen other candidates. Nixon picked him because of some things that were pretty superficial. He was from a state considered part of the south at a time Nixon was employing his infamous "southern strategy." But he wasn't from so far into the south that he would turn off northern voters. He was also an immigrant and that was considered a bonus.

But there was no indication that his character was a part of the consideration.

Nixon/Agnew went on to beat Humphrey, narrowly, in 1968. Then four years later, they won 49 out of 50 states in beating George McGovern. They made a good team in terms of politics and clearly were successful in winning votes.

But there was a problem.

In 1973, at the same time that the Watergate investigation was ramping up, Federal Investigators began checking into bribery allegations against Agnew. In July, the existence of the Nixon Watergate tapes became public knowledge. And on October of that year, Agnew was forced to resign the Vice Presidency. Gerald Ford was sworn in to replace him in December. Nixon of course resigned in August, 1974, and Ford then became President.

The team that won 49 out of 50 states in one of the most lopsided elections in U.S. History were both gone - less than nineteen months after their second inauguration. Because of character issues. They both won an election in one of the most dramatic landslides in American History. But because they won in a dishonorable way and because Agnew broke the law, they were both forced to resign in disgrace. They didn't even make it to the half way point in the term that they won by such an incredible margin. And because by inauguration day, they were both facing scrutiny over Nixon's Watergate and over Agnew's bribery and tax evasion, they probably never enjoyed a single day of that term. What good is it to win an election in a way that makes you unable to actually lead once you get the job?

But can you imagine what would have happened if the Watergate tapes had been discovered one year before, in 1972, right after the burglary? And if the resignation of Nixon had happened one year before?

This is how it could have played out. Nixon would have resigned in August, 1973. Agnew would have become President. And then in October, 1973, Agnew would have also had to resign or face impeachment. It could have been possible for two consecutive Presidents of the United States to have been forced from office - in a time span of two months. They were both guilty of crimes. It was only a matter of merciful timing that kept this scenario from happening.

Can you imagine what would have happened to our country if two consecutive Presidents had been removed from office because of corruption in a matter of a few months? It would have totally destroyed the very office of the Presidency. It's possible that the new Vice President wouldn't even have been confirmed in time and then the Speaker of the House would have become President. During the midst of the Cold War.

And this is why, for both positions, as well as for everything else, character counts. And when picking a Vice President, character is a much more important characteristic than any of the things that might help you get elected. Because the most important role of a Vice President is to be able to assume the Presidency if the President cannot complete his/her term. It doesn't matter how much you win if character issues keep you from being able to keep the job. Because, as the old saying goes, your gifts can take you to a place where your character isn't strong enough to keep you.

Mike Huckabee, as usual, nailed it. The GOP shouldn't try to run against Obama by calling him names or turning him into some type of boogeyman. It needs to argue and campaign on the issues and ideas. And it needs a message - it needs to tell people why to vote for John McCain and not just reasons not to vote for Barack Obama.

I have a number of serious disagreements with some of Barack Obama's policies. However, I'm not against or out to get Obama. I don't even dislike him - I just strongly disagree with him on some issues. And that's the attitude that would benefit the GOP. Point out the differences. Don't try to turn it into a bloodbath. People are tired of that approach - from both directions (and the anger-fest has truly gone in both directions).

But just spending every waking second of the day finding a new name to call Obama works against the GOP in a number of ways. It is a sure way to lose to Barack Obama. The best shot McCain has is to solidify his message, get a great running mate who has a passionate following and sound ideas (Huckabee) and to run the campaign by talking about how his ideas compare to Obama's ideas. Class is what people want, not more red meat for the pit bulls of both sides to fight over while the rest of us lose respect for both sides - and especially for the side that seems to spend more time getting personal. You can actually win an election on issues.

Remember ... most of the country is sick and tired of partisan warfare. You can listen to those on either side of the political divide who are out for blood ... but you will find yourself completely out of alignment with what the people want. We've had enough warfare in the past two decades and our nation is already divided enough. Let's have a discussion of ideas. If you really want to hurt your opponent, make them explain and try to defend a crummy idea. It's much more effective than name calling.

Being obsessed with trashing your opponent only works when the opponent plays along by either not fighting back (Kerry) or by playing along with the caricature he's been painted to be (Goldwater). It didn't work for the Republicans when they were obsessed with trashing Clinton in 1996. It didn't work for the Democrats when they were obsessed with Bush in 2004. It hurt both Hillary and Obama during the Democratic Primaries. And it won't work for either side this fall - it will completely backfire. Get a message. Articulate your policies. Draw out your differences with your opponent. And act with class. Don't listen to the brawlers on both the left and the right. No one who listens to their advice wins elections. Unless, of course, the opponent helps them out a lot.

"The Wrong Way"  Pretty tacky. Childish. More appropriate for a contest for Freshman Class President than the Presidency of the United States. This type of stuff makes me have a poor opinion of the intellect of those who say it.A bit idiotic, isn't it? Why not just tell "mama" jokes and throw spitballs instead? This will backfire in a huge way and won't do much to persuade those who haven't already made up their mind.

"The Right Way" For those who are confused about what Huckabee was talking about, here is an example of a campaign that doesn't get into crass personal insults but compares issues. None of it is being "soft" on Obama but instead leads voters to think about differences in issues - which won't happen if they just use low-ball politics. This is more what you'd expect from someone who is mentally mature enough to be President. Try to motivate voters to vote for you because they like your ideas better than the other guy's - not because you've tried to make them hate the other guy/gal.

What a dumb move

Most people thought that it wasn't a very smart move for a politician who wanted to have a place in the White House to make.

Mike Huckabee was expected to continue talking directly to the specific group of Republican voters who he'd spent the last few months courting. He was expected to do what was considered the responsible thing and to keep his focus on the campaign at hand and not do something that some thought bordered on indulgence. Huckabee's move was something that was in contradiction to political common sense - at least many of the highly paid Republican Party political consultants thought so. Why couldn't he just continue to do what all the other contenders were doing? But Huckabee marched to his own beat and traveled to the end of the country to take his seat in the television studio. Even the travel time was costing him opportunities to mingle with the important people. His competitors laughed at how foolish a decision he had just made.

And then he did it. And the whole country got to see Mike Huckabee spend time joking around with Jay Leno and playing with his band while explaining his political positions in terms that all the people could understand and relate to. The next day, Huckabee won the Iowa Caucuses by more than nine points, beating a man who wildly outspent him and who, unlike Huck, did all the things a sensible politician in 2008 was supposed to do.

And that episode should have been a lesson for those who like to laugh at Mike Huckabee. The lesson that nobody laughs at him for very long. Because in addition to being a very experienced government Chief Executive, Mike Huckabee is also a different type of politician. And like many of our most successful American Presidents, he knows how to use the mass media to talk directly to the people. But unlike most modern politicians, he does it without paying a dime. Pretty dumb, huh?

The Unexpected

When the news broke last week that Mike Huckabee had signed a contract to be a regular contributor on Fox News, neither Huckabee's supporters or critics knew exactly what to make of it. Was this a sign that he had given up on hopes of being McCain's Vice President or that he knew he wouldn't be picked? Or was this, as some critics charged, proof that Huckabee was working a personal agenda and wasn't interested in advancing the conservative cause? Everybody seemed to agree that this was the last thing anyone expected a potential Veep-in-waiting to do. Those guys are supposed to spend their days sitting by the phone and saying nothing outside of the scripted endorsements planned for the carefully staged campaign events that the smart campaign people put together. That is, after all, what the public has been conditioned to expect from the typical politician.

Whether you like or dislike Mike Huckabee, there is one thing you will learn about him if you haven't already. He's not the typical politician. He doesn't often do the expected. In fact, he often does the exact opposite of what you'd think a politician would do. He even surprises his supporters sometimes.

You may be thinking that this trait is a liability. After all, it surely must be better to be buttoned down and traditional. More formal and serious. Not going off script or coming up with new ideas that the super-smart campaign aides didn't think of first? Well, not in 2008. You see, the public is sick to death of traditional politicians. That old thing about not answering yes or no questions and not thinking on your feet to respond to situations that weren't perfectly scripted - that's so twenty years ago. In fact, the public is so sick of politicians who do what politicians are expected to do that they're leaning toward voting for a candidate who has relatively little experience. That sound that you hear is the people storming outside the gates. The public wants a different type of politician. And they want someone who will communicate to them in a way that most politicians don't.

The Great Communicators

Many of the most popular and effective Presidents in American History have been those whose administrations were most gifted in speaking directly to the people through the media.

Franklin Delano Rooesevelt was Governor of New York before he became the nation's thirty second President. And as Governor, he stayed in touch with his constituents through the most potent mass media instrument of the day - the radio. He went on the air at least once a month and spoke with the public in their own homes and in a way they could relate to. Using his great communication skills, FDR was able to outmaneuver the state legislature, which opposed him, by appealing directly to the public and using the people to pressure legislators to get his agenda passed. When he came to the Oval Office, the media-savvy Roosevelt continued his usage of the media, talking to the entire nation this time in what came to be known as the "fireside chats." This usage of the media to communicate directly with the public endeared Roosevelt to much of the public and kept the nation informed during a string of crisis periods.

Technology continued to advance and, as it did, the more popular Presidencies seemed to be the ones whose administrations had expertise in using it effectively. The Election of 1952 featured the first televised Presidential advertisement ever. General Eisenhower, the Republican candidate, was filmed talking to a group of voters giving short answers to their concerns about every day issues, such as the cost of groceries. Later that same year, Eisenhower's running mate, Richard Nixon, was able to save his own career and spare the Republican ticket from total disarray with the famous "Checkers" speech - in which he spoke directly to the public about his personal finances. Someone even quipped that because of the emphasis on television, one day professional actors would run for President.

Eight years later came the first televised Presidential debates. President Kennedy emerged the winner of the election in part because he understood how to utilize the power of the mass media. Although most radio listeners thought that Nixon won the first debate, the eighty million Americans who watched the televised debate thought that Kennedy, who looked more relaxed and at ease, won and presented himself better.

The President who most effectively used the mass media to talk to the American people was President Ronald Reagan, who of course had a long career as a professional actor and was comfortable in front of the camera. He also had a significant amount of experience as a state Governor. And that experience along with his great communication skills, his friendly nature and his incredible sense of humor, earned him the nickname "The Great Communicator." One of the many keys to his popularity was that he knew how to speak to millions of Americans but yet come off as if he were sitting across the table in a one on one conversation with each of them. And he refused to be boxed in by the stuffiness of those who wanted to tell him what a President should and shouldn't say. Some of his most memorable moments - most notably "tear down this wall" - came about because Reagan himself was willing to communicate in ways and in terms not expected for an American President.

The guy in your living room

Back to Huckabee. Long before he entered the world of politics, Mike Huckabee had gained plenty of experience in using the mass media to get his message out to as many people as possible. At age 14, Huckabee got his first job - reading news and weather on a local radio station. In both of the churches that he Pastored in the 1980's and early 90's, he started 24-hour television stations. And during the last year as a fledgling Presidential candidate, Huckabee became a household name through brilliant usage of the mass media. He frequently appeared on every available mass media outlet - while getting more votes for less money than any other major candidate. And along with that publicity came public attention to the causes Huckabee espoused - the Fair Tax and the Human Life Amendment to name a couple. No matter what message Huckabee has tried to deliver - whether it's the message of the Gospel or of tax reform - Huckabee knows how to efficiently communicate it to as many people at a time as possible.

And back to Fox. Whatever his role is at the network, this is an opportunity for Huckabee to bring more attention to his causes, his party, as well any future candidacy. He also has the advantage of getting to spend time in the living rooms of potential voters but to do so at a time when he's not actively asking for votes. People are used to being wary of politicians. But not only is Huckabee unlike most politicians, but, he will be serving in a role that allows him to have a conversational relationship with the largest group of cable news viewers. Which is of course an audience that generally tends to never sit out an election. And on top of all these benefits, he is being compensated for it. We all realized that Huckabee was skilled at getting free media coverage. But it turns out he was smart enough to figure out how to actually get paid for it.

Regardless of what Mike Huckabee does in the future - regardless of whether he emerges as John McCain's 2008 running mate or runs for office himself in the future, this step - getting into the living rooms of the people who would be most likely to vote for his party - helps him, his party and his causes immensely. And it will help Fox, whose ratings have sagged a bit as of late. This is one of those situations in which everybody involved wins. And those who are laughing at it probably won't laugh for very long. Rumor has it that Chuck Norris is hanging out in the green room.

Once upon a time, there was a farmer named Sam. Sam owned and operated a huge farm. The farm was so vast and rich with stock and other resources that it was the third largest farm in the world. Sam's huge farm had dairy cows, poultry, sheep, and lots of vegetation. He could grow his own food and even knit his own clothes. He had not only enough resources to take care of everyone who lived on his land but was able to trade what was left to the supermarket chain that had a store not far away.

Sam had a very large extended family. Being a fair man, Sam tried to incorporate everyone's opinions in the way that he operated the farm. Over the course of time, some members of Sam's family began to have strong objections to the way he ran the family business.

Some thought that Sam had no business milking the cows. They thought that to continue doing so was disruptive to the serenity that the cows enjoyed while grazing on the land. They also thought that the automatic milking machines were too noisy and that the system caused too much waste to be spread on the pasture. Even though Sam's family liked to drink milk, Sam honored the request and stopped milking. He decided they could afford to buy milk for the family from the supermarket.

As soon as this decision was reached, some others in the family told Sam that they didn't like the idea of continuing to farm chicken. They feared that the drainage wasn't adequate and that it was difficult to protect the chicken from predators. They didn't like the mess they created and feared the possibility of catastrophe that could happen with birds - such as the outbreak of the Avian flu that they heard about. Although Sam's family loved eggs and could supply their own needs and the needs of others with the poultry farming, Sam again relented. They allowed the chicken population to die down and did not continue to grow more. Instead, they ate more cheese instead. And to get the cheese - like other milk products, they now needed to buy more from the supermarket down the road.

Sam's family had a lot of specific concerns that, while valid in some ways, limited his ability to use the resources on his farm. Some didn't like the idea of picking too many vegetables (the cattle needed them). Others didn't like the idea of shearing the sheep for clothing (didn't like the usage of the shearing board). And even though they had many opportunities to start farming different types of stock and livestock, they refused because they were able to get by with what they were doing at the moment.

Eventually, Sam was no longer able to sell anything to the supermarket chain but needed to buy a lot from them instead. And what's worse is that, instead of scaling back on what they ate and wore, Sam's family just bought more and more, eating and buying as much as they wanted because the prices weren't bad.

The managers of the supermarket chain, not being able to buy from Sam, needed to get their supplies from other farms that were a lot further away. Those farms charged a markup and increased their prices as they realized the supermarket chain kept buying more and more. And to make as much money as possible, the supermarket chain also added a markup of their own. Eventually, the dairy products that once were pretty cheap at the store started to become unaffordable for Sam. Sam's family couldn't eat or wear as much as they were accustomed to. And they quickly became furious at the supermarket chain.

They accused the chains of being greedy and getting rich off of their misery. They blamed everybody that they could think of. And while the supermarket chain and the faraway farms certainly were guilty of some element of greed, Sam's family refused to understand that they weren't doing everything they could do to help themselves. It was all somebody else's fault.

Sam's family found itself in danger of going hungry and not having enough to wear. But they still were hoping that eventually, the greedy supermarket people would show them some mercy and make the price of the milk - the milk they chose to buy instead of producing themselves - affordable again.

In case you haven't figured it out already, the Sam mentioned above is Uncle Sam, the government of the United States of America. In our great democracy, we allow everyone to have a voice and to fight for the things that concern them. However, some people here have worked very hard to limit the ways we can use our own resources to produce more of our own energy instead of buying it from the global market. Others have just been lazy and complacent and haven't worked hard to find new forms of energy. And meanwhile, most of us have refused to conserve and use only the energy that we need to use. We keep consuming more and more. We are Sam's family.

There's certainly plenty of blame to go around in the "supermarket" - the oil companies, the speculators, the foreign governments that are selling us their oil. But, like Sam's family, we don't have as much right to shake an angry fist at others as we think - until we've done all that we can do to help ourselves.

Let's tell our elected officials that while we're on the hunt for greedy bad guys, we also have to do everything we can to work our own farm. After all, this country is the third biggest farm in the world.

Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less.

 Congressman Wohson (a fictional person - it's "No Show" spelled backwards) doesn't feel comfortable simply sharing his good ideas on government with black voters. He feels much more comfortable sending others to "get out the vote" - or just ignoring them altogether. He's puzzled why this doesn't seem to work and why he gets so little support from these voters. He tells himself that they must all be liberal. Yeah, that's it.

ATTENTION, POLITICIANS! DO YOU SUFFER FROM ABNORMALLY BAD POLLING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS? THE NEXT 30 SECONDS MAY CHANGE YOUR LIFE.

DO YOU FEEL INTIMIDATED AT THE PROSPECT OF TALKING WITH BLACK VOTERS? DO YOU AVOID OPPORTUNITIES TO MINGLE AND GET INVOLVED WITH THE BLACK COMMUNITY BECAUSE YOU DON'T FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THEM LIKE YOU DO WITH EVERY OTHER GROUP OF PEOPLE? IF SO, YOU MAY BE SUFFERING FROM URBANOPHOBIA, A TREATABLE CONDITION THAT HAS AFFECTED MANY TALENTED POLITICIANS FOR DECADES. SADLY, THIS TERRIBLE CONDITION HAS BEEN AT AN EPEDEMIC LEVEL IN THE GOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT YOU CAN RECOVER. YOU CAN LEARN THE TRUTH, AS SOME OTHERS LIKE YOU HAVE, THAT YOU CAN BE YOURSELF AROUND EVERYBODY AND PEOPLE WILL PROBABLY STILL LIKE YOU. YOU DON'T HAVE TO CONTINUE THE SHAME OF REJECTING INVITES FROM THE NAACP, TRYING TO "TALK BLACK" OR TRYING TO SOUND LIKE A PREACHER WHEN YOU SPEAK (A RELATED CONDITION THAT MOSTLY AFFECTS DEMOCRATS).

CALL 1-555-JUST-BE-U OR CONSULT THE REST OF THIS MESSAGE. IT'S TIME TO STOP SUFFERING IN SILENCE. YOU CAN OVERCOME YOUR FEAR OF TALKING TO BLACK VOTERS. ONE STUMP SPEECH AT A TIME.

A lot of white conservatives were stunned this weekend with the news that a few black conservatives are considering the possibility of voting for Barack Obama. Most shocking is the fact that former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts, a well respected conservative, is among them. From the article:

J.C. Watts, a former Oklahoma congressman who once was part of the GOP House leadership, said he's thinking of voting for Obama. Watts said he's still a Republican, but he criticizes his party for neglecting the black community. Black Republicans, he said, have to concede that while they might not agree with Democrats on issues, at least that party reaches out to them.

If this isn't a warning sign for the GOP that they seriously need to start reaching out to black voters - not just from now until the election like they did in 2004 - but make it a permanent part of the party philosophy - nothing will help them.

For decades, many in the Republican Party have see